Right now, everyone wants 2023 first-round picks and over the next few weeks, their value will never be higher. Timing is everything when it comes to rookie pick trade value. Understanding that market, specifically when it comes to rookie picks is crucial to staying one step ahead of your league mates.

In dynasty fantasy football, average draft position (ADP) is an ever-changing market. There’s more to being a good dynasty manager than just drafting the best players or making the best start/sit decisions.

Cox/Getty Images Strike While the Iron’s Hot The reality, however, is that the vast majority of rookie picks in the second round end up being worthless a year later with the hit rate sitting at around 30%. In dynasty rookie drafts, it feels incredible to be the manager in your league who found the diamond in the rough in round two, or heck, even round three! Don’t get me wrong, there are valuable dynasty assets that fall into the second-round rookie drafts (see below). Skill and landing spot effects are equal and opposite for RBs.His findings for the two major positions were thus: It’s hard to quantify “skill” or “landing spot” but in his methodology, he tries to get as close as possible using fantasy points as a metric. If you want a follow-up on this subject, one of our writers Matt DiSorbo wrote an article: What Matters More for Rookies: Skill or Landing Spot? He wanted to take this idea a step further than just including draft capital. Yet, 13 of those RBs with that type of NFL draft capital (3rd round or worse) ended up as top-5 rookie picks!.Of the 40 RBs selected since 2015 in dynasty rookie drafts, only five became RB1s in their 1st year.In my research, reaching on RBs doesn’t usually pay off. When you survey the list of the rookie RBs drafted in the 3rd round or later of the NFL draft and where managers took them in dynasty, it might cause you to rethink your life. Situations change but draft capital doesn’t. Take your shot in the 1st round on players that were taken in the first two rounds. You need elite RBs but you also understand they don’t last forever. We Overvalue Immediate Opportunity versus Talent Here are the six tips we discussed on the podcast and how you can adjust your strategy each year for rookie drafts.

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